ABNA24 - Mr. Iraj Mohammad Jamaludin, CEO of ACCIN in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, has offered a detailed geopolitical analysis of recent US and Israeli policies toward Iran and the region. He explained the reasons behind Washington's tactical delays and Tel Aviv's continued lack of decisive victories.
1. Why Did Trump Delay His Deadline to Strike Iran's Infrastructure? Could It Be Deception?
Jamaludin noted that delays in military action usually stem from operational constraints, not hidden plots. He highlighted three key factors:
- High operational risk: Striking Iranian infrastructure would almost certainly trigger Iranian retaliation across the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Israel, and vital shipping lanes — a major deterrent.
- Intelligence uncertainty and allied coordination: Military planners need highly reliable intelligence, and hesitation among US allies has slowed decision-making.
- Economic considerations: Any escalation with Iran risks destabilizing global oil markets, with severe consequences for the world economy.
When asked about the possibility of a deception operation, he said: "Vigilance is always necessary, but current evidence points more to real constraints than an elaborate ruse."
2. Why Did European Countries Reject Trump's Request for Help in Opening the Strait of Hormuz?
The CEO explained that European governments generally take a different approach from Washington regarding Iran. The main reasons include:
- Preference for diplomacy: France and Germany have historically prioritized negotiation frameworks (like the 2015 nuclear deal) over escalation.
- Economic vulnerability: Europe is highly sensitive to energy price shocks; instability in the Strait of Hormuz directly hurts European economies.
- Strategic autonomy: The European Union prefers to maintain an independent foreign policy rather than automatically aligning with US strategy.
3. How Close Are We to the 'Fall of the Pharaoh' as Described by Ayatollah Khamenei?
Jamaludin noted that this phrase is symbolic and strategic, not an immediate forecast of collapse. "The United States remains a globally dominant military and economic power, but it is undoubtedly a declining empire," he said. "What we are witnessing today is not a sudden 'fall,' but a gradual shift in the balance of power and the decisive formation of a multipolar world order."
4. Why Do US and Israeli Conflicts Continue Without Clear Achievements?
Regarding the Gaza war (ongoing for over two years), the war against Lebanon, and now the war against Iran, Jamaludin pointed to the nature of modern warfare:
- Limited objectives: Most operations aim to weaken threats, not eliminate them entirely (e.g., degrading missile capabilities or militant groups, not permanent occupation).
- Asymmetric warfare: Groups like Hamas and Hezbollah use guerrilla tactics, making decisive victory difficult for conventional armies.
- Political constraints: Full-scale war (occupation or regime change) is usually avoided due to high costs, legal consequences, and global backlash.
- Different definitions of success: What outside observers call "no achievement" may be viewed by policymakers as "restored deterrence" or "reduced threat."
He concluded that these conflicts appear endless because they are managed conflicts, not total wars with clear endpoints.
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